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Now Trump is trying to out-crazy North Korea

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  • Originally posted by posthuman View Post

    China says they will stay out of any conflict as long as North Korea isn't the aggressor. I foresee no evidence complete enough to China to demonstrate North Korea was clearly the aggressor, given what you are describing as necessary preparations for a war. Evacuating Seoul is impossible to disguise as anything less than a declaration of war.

    i read recently there are back door negotiations and I'm curious what they think they can do? North Korea wants the US off the peninsula. That's why they are building ICBMs; to scare away the US by threatening our homes. What could we offer them to stop building those missiles? Is Trump negotiating capitulation?
    You're already at war, there's an armistice. China isn't going to attack its largest trading partner over a problem client state, that one isn't really an issue. The wonders of globalisation have negated that risk. The risk from bombing NK is it attacking SK or Japan, which if it's behaving rationally as you seem to think, it wouldn't do. If it's behaving rationally its response to a clear preparation to attack it would be capitulation, done in a way they think saves face. If it is not behaving rationally then you have crazy people with nuclear weapons aimed at the US. You can't predict the behaviour of crazy people so it is necessary to take their nukes away. There's a window right now where the worst case scenario is limited, they have a small stockpile, their missiles are largely untested and relatively inaccurate. Those factors will change, so the cost of action is only going to go up. The evacuation of Seoul wouldn't be disguised, no more than moving assets into attack range could be, it serves a dual purpose of sending a clear signal that it's for real and not NK style bluster in order to head off the need for conflict, and preparing to quickly win the conflict if it turns out NK actually is crazy enough to fight one. They have nukes, they are rapidly building the capability to hit US cities with them and they regularly declare that's exactly what they want to do. How is that acceptable to you?

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    • http://www.military.com/daily-news/2...=todayinmil.sm

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      • Originally posted by AnalHamster View Post

        You're already at war, there's an armistice. China isn't going to attack its largest trading partner over a problem client state, that one isn't really an issue. The wonders of globalisation have negated that risk. The risk from bombing NK is it attacking SK or Japan, which if it's behaving rationally as you seem to think, it wouldn't do. If it's behaving rationally its response to a clear preparation to attack it would be capitulation, done in a way they think saves face. If it is not behaving rationally then you have crazy people with nuclear weapons aimed at the US. You can't predict the behaviour of crazy people so it is necessary to take their nukes away. There's a window right now where the worst case scenario is limited, they have a small stockpile, their missiles are largely untested and relatively inaccurate. Those factors will change, so the cost of action is only going to go up. The evacuation of Seoul wouldn't be disguised, no more than moving assets into attack range could be, it serves a dual purpose of sending a clear signal that it's for real and not NK style bluster in order to head off the need for conflict, and preparing to quickly win the conflict if it turns out NK actually is crazy enough to fight one. They have nukes, they are rapidly building the capability to hit US cities with them and they regularly declare that's exactly what they want to do. How is that acceptable to you?
        China isn't neutered by globalization. Capitalism is an experiment to them that they will discard out of hand if the situation requires it. China has stated that Korea is part of historical China, as much as you or I may think that's bullshit, I find it hard to believe they will ignore a potential nuclear war on their doorstep -especially not to appease the US whatever our trade status is.

        I would like to agree that capitulation at the threat of war is a necessity but I don't foresee that as an inevitability. If that were so obviously the case why hasn't any President from Nixon right up to this point simply called for a public evacuation of Seoul and frightened the North Koreans into submission?

        I see the cost of war as already unacceptable. More so it's unnecessary. The only thing we have to do to maintain peace whether North Korea is nuclear armed or not is not going to war. There is simply no rationale for committing to an unbelievably costly war to pre-empt the possibility of a later, unbelievably costly war. Neither nuclear nor conventional war was acceptable to either side. Why go there just to go there?

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        • I didn't say China was neutered by globalisation, I said it was not in their interests to attack their largest trading partner which would absolutely guaranteed destroy their own economy. It's self interest, both for the country and the party. You keep trying to change what I say to fit your starting position. China did not claim Korea is part of China, they aren't shy about making that sort of claim, they simply don't claim it.

          The reason the necessary action of threatening renewal of the war to force capitulation hasn't happened has changed over time, back in Nixon's day China fighting was a certainty rather than a non threat. Under Clinton the threat of an attack on sk wasn't outweighed by the threat of a nuclear weapons in the hands of crazies. You need to look at the situation today, can you refute my analysis? If you're happy for a nuclear power to be threatening to nuke US cities then you presumably have a pretty high level of confidence that they are going to behave rationally, no?

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          • Originally posted by posthuman View Post

            China isn't neutered by globalization. Capitalism is an experiment to them that they will discard out of hand if the situation requires it. China has stated that Korea is part of historical China, as much as you or I may think that's bullshit, I find it hard to believe they will ignore a potential nuclear war on their doorstep -especially not to appease the US whatever our trade status is.

            I would like to agree that capitulation at the threat of war is a necessity but I don't foresee that as an inevitability. If that were so obviously the case why hasn't any President from Nixon right up to this point simply called for a public evacuation of Seoul and frightened the North Koreans into submission?

            I see the cost of war as already unacceptable. More so it's unnecessary. The only thing we have to do to maintain peace whether North Korea is nuclear armed or not is not going to war. There is simply no rationale for committing to an unbelievably costly war to pre-empt the possibility of a later, unbelievably costly war. Neither nuclear nor conventional war was acceptable to either side. Why go there just to go there?
            Continually threatening our homeland and our allies with a rapidly developing nuclear arsenal while demonstrably proving their advancements simply warrants a "meh" in your eyes?

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            • Originally posted by CHEEZY08 View Post

              Continually threatening our homeland and our allies with a rapidly developing nuclear arsenal while demonstrably proving their advancements simply warrants a "meh" in your eyes?
              It's a repeat of when Russia, then China did the same thing. When Russia developed ICBMs they though the threat to our nation's cities would convince us to abandon our allies in Europe and leave them to rule the continent on their own. Instead we made movies about getting under your desk and built an even larger nuclear stockpile than them. War was never the goal and as far as I can tell it still isn't.

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              • Originally posted by AnalHamster View Post
                I didn't say China was neutered by globalisation, I said it was not in their interests to attack their largest trading partner which would absolutely guaranteed destroy their own economy. It's self interest, both for the country and the party. You keep trying to change what I say to fit your starting position. China did not claim Korea is part of China, they aren't shy about making that sort of claim, they simply don't claim it.

                The reason the necessary action of threatening renewal of the war to force capitulation hasn't happened has changed over time, back in Nixon's day China fighting was a certainty rather than a non threat. Under Clinton the threat of an attack on sk wasn't outweighed by the threat of a nuclear weapons in the hands of crazies. You need to look at the situation today, can you refute my analysis? If you're happy for a nuclear power to be threatening to nuke US cities then you presumably have a pretty high level of confidence that they are going to behave rationally, no?
                I'm saying that the US has to be the most rational actor in world affairs. Has. To. Be. It is irrational, in fact terribly childish, to look at a possible threat to our homes as a threat too far when the ally we are defending has been asked to look utter destruction in the eye for over half a century. How is it rational to look at a threat to the US as reason for a pre-emptive strike but threat of an attack on Seoul as an acceptable risk? We have always had our allies' backs and it was never because danger was far away and out of range, it's because it's worth the risk to us to defend them. Now, when we might have to worry about an attack on our homes, we must simply tell Seoul they are now fucked? That's not an ally.

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                • I would argue that we and South Korea would be better off if we abandoned the peninsula than if we engaged with North Korea militarily.

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                  • What is up with the vicious hate you lefties spew toward our President?

                    Why don't you people shut the fuck up and let him do his job?

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                    • Originally posted by posthuman View Post
                      I would argue that we and South Korea would be better off if we abandoned the peninsula than if we engaged with North Korea militarily.
                      Korea was much better off being under the control of the Empire of Japan after the war. Koreans have proven time and time again they can't handle governing themselves.

                      Korea was just fine as a Japanese territory for 35 years.

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                      • Originally posted by Nothingfaced View Post
                        What is up with the vicious hate you lefties spew toward our President?

                        Why don't you people shut the fuck up and let him do his job?
                        Oh that's rich, everybody just shut up and let Obama do his job. Like appointing Supreme Court Judges.

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                        • Originally posted by Captquint View Post

                          Oh that's rich, everybody just shut up and let Obama do his job. Like appointing Supreme Court Judges.
                          Hussein Obama, last I checked, is a private American citizen and has zero power.

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                          • Originally posted by Nothingfaced View Post

                            Hussein Obama, last I checked, is a private American citizen and has zero power.
                            He was President for 8 years

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                            • Originally posted by Captquint View Post

                              He was President for 8 years
                              Was. Key word. Quite frankly, I wish that pile of shit was never elected. I voted against him twice in 2008 and 2012, and Alabama carried McCain and Romney, but Hussein Obama still won the election.

                              Don't blame Alabama.

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                              • Originally posted by Nothingfaced View Post
                                What is up with the vicious hate you lefties spew toward our President?

                                Why don't you people shut the fuck up and let him do his job?
                                I think its pretty admirable that you don't say much in SFW but when you do you make sure its exceptionally dumb. Kudos for that, dickbreath.

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